News Summary

• Three major factors are likely to shape economic and geopolitical outcomes over the next several years.
• They are politically unconstrained AI development, a shift from the logic of globalization to zero-sum thinking, and heightened international tail risks.
• Much could go right, or at least as expected—until it doesn’t, says John Defterios, an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) The world is in turmoil, primarily because the United States, still the dominant superpower, has become a fundamentally unreliable actor.
• Yet financial markets are riding high, not just in the US but also in East Asia, South America, and much of Europe.
• Are investors wrong, or is the picture more complex than this seeming contradiction suggests?