News Summary

• Kalshi Research is doing interesting work on the fundamentals of prediction markets and also on how data from prediction markets can be used to improve other forecasts.
• Kalshi gives one example of how this data might be used, t he Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF) The CBO forecasts the future debt path but it updates only twice a year and is limited to a legislative baseline even when most observers expect, for example, taxes to increase or spending to be cut.
• The KalsHI CDF updates continuously and can build in market expectations about future legislative changes.