News Summary

• The u.s. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño through October-December.
• The weather phenomenon, which typically occurs every two to seven years, is likely to bring drought ‌to parts of Asia and heavy rains to parts of South America.
• Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable as households spend a larger share of their income on food, and agriculture plays a big role in their economies.
• A severe El Niño could keep borrowing costs elevated across the region through the start of the following year.