News Summary

• Geopolitical conflicts are quietly taxing American consumers, with low-income households bearing the heaviest burden.
• Conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are estimated to cost the US economy roughly $45 billion annually through elevated energy prices.
• A sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices is estimated to shave 0.1-0.2 percentage points off US GDP after one year.
• Elevated oil and gas costs feed directly into inflation readings, and persistent inflation means the Fed keeps interest rates higher for longer.